18 June, Kathmandu. Meteorologists have said that there are early indications that this year’s monsoon will enter Nepal earlier than the Sardar date.
Monsoon has reached India. Monsoon entering India from Kerala has spread to the northeast region.
According to meteorologists, monsoon has entered India two days before the Sardar date and since it has spread to the northeastern region, there are early signs of monsoon entering Nepal as well.
Meteorologist Govind Jha of the Weather Forecast Division of the Department of Water and Meteorology said, ‘Since the monsoon has already spread in Northeast India, it is only a guess that it will arrive in Nepal a little faster. But it cannot be concluded based on the initial signs.’
Climate expert Dr. Dharmaraj Upreti takes the spread of monsoon in Kerala, India two days ago and as far as Assam and Meghalaya six days ago as a sign of fast arrival of monsoon in Nepal. According to him, the monsoon used to reach Sardar on June 1 in Kerala and Assam and Meghalaya on June 5. But this year, he said that it has arrived early this year, he said, ‘The fact that this rain reached India’s Assam about a week earlier means that the possibility of it reaching Nepal a week earlier has also increased.’
But according to meteorologist Jha, the onset of monsoon is dependent on other systems.
Monsoon is the wind blowing from the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal. In Nepal, South West (Western Wind) blows for 6 months and North East (Eastern Wind) for the next 6 months. Generally speaking, during monsoon, easterly winds should replace westerly winds.
If the wind comes more from the west, then the monsoon winds cannot advance. But if the wind comes more from the east, the west wind retreats and the monsoon sets in.
“It also depends on how strong the heat low is in Pakistan,” says meteorologist Jha, “The speed and delay of the monsoons also depends on the hot air there, so there is a gap and the fast air comes from the Bay of Bengal and then the monsoon air moves quickly towards Nepal. There are five or six such features. Everyone has their role. The one that has the most influence will be pulled/bent towards that direction.’
Meteorologist Jha says that they are closely monitoring the monsoon and will inform about its progress by issuing a bulletin.
This year, if the monsoon comes quickly to Nepal, there will be relief from the hot summer. But this year, there is concern that the damage may be more as it is forecasted to rain more than Sardar during the monsoon period. Dr. who is also a disaster expert. Upreti says, ‘Monsoon will be good for the current heat and farming system, but as there will be more than average rainfall, there will be more risk of floods and landslides.’
Therefore, disaster experts have been stressing on the need to be cautious to avoid possible damage.
